I grew up with a family member who invoked this wise guidance in just about every context. How spot on it feels now.
Yesterday I read the March 16th COVID-19 modeling and analysis from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. Largely credited as a major influence on both the US and UK response to COVID-19, the paper is both sobering and edifying. The opening sentence of the executive summary sets the tone:
“The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic.”
There’s a lot here that matters for schools. While the future is neither certain or predictable, the likely outcomes and the many possibilities in the face of those outcomes are pertinent to schools and worth examination.
Everyone should read this report closely, but here’s a quick summary from my read:
Until we have a vaccine, we are reliant largely on public health measures “non-pharmaceutical interventions” (NPIs)
There are two basic approaches: 1) mitigation (slowing the spread of the epidemic) and 2) suppression (reversing the growth of the epidemic).
Mitigation involves some combination of case isolation and quarantines with social distancing. Suppression involves the more comprehensive combination of measures, including school and university closures, case isolation and home quarantines, and strict social distancing. Needless to say, both take a heavy toll on people and the economy - and are hard to sustain.
Given how this virus transmits, this forecast makes a strong case for suppression as the preferred option, in order to not overwhelm the healthcare system (critical care beds) and to reduce mortality.
Even with aggressive mitigation (think New York right now), the forecast is that once things look better (China now) and policy is relaxed, we are predicted to see another outbreak requiring yet another suppression response within 2-3 months.
We are not out of the woods until we have a vaccine (12-18 months away) and until then, we’ll be dealing with outbreaks, capacity issues, and serious illness with fatalities in our country and around the world.
The takeaway?
We should expect to see policies like the ones we are currently undertaking to be in effect, at least intermittently, from now until mid -- late 2021. We are in a new normal, and with new data everyday, we will have to adapt - globally, locally, and at the systemic level.
What does this mean for schools?
Don’t approach your closure and your move to distance learning as temporary: this is our new normal and we need to adapt and thrive.
It’s going to be about a lot more than “school”: think human suffering, loss, isolation, community stress, and deep disruptions to economic and social well-being. Schools can help children and families if they stay focused on their commitment to community care.
The economic impact to schools, like hospitals, could be severe: Schools with low reserves and weak enrollment are at risk, and some are facing the potential for closure. Boards and school leaders will need to consider all the potentialities. The economic impact, while uncertain, is sure to be significant, and schools need money and contingency plans to operate successfully.
What matters most in learning must be redefined: all our efforts to transform schools and learning may be here now -- and we may be forced to do what so many of us have been talking about for a long time -- allowing our students lead the way, drive their own learning, follow their interests, use technology productively, and learn to create, make and innovate beyond the walls of a classroom.
Adults and their children need support more than ever in learning: faculty learning to teach from home, parents and teachers working from home, children trying to learn at home, parents who need to go out to work and arrange for care for their at home children….and the list goes on.
Be well, be safe, and stay tuned for my next post: questions and issues for school leaders and boards as we build resilience in the face of this uncertain future!